SPUG: CPAN code worth $500M

Peter Darley pdarley at kinesis-cem.com
Mon Aug 9 09:37:04 CDT 2004

	I'm not sure that these estimates are even vaguely correct.  When I run
SLOCCount on my system I get:

Total Physical Source Lines of Code (SLOC)                = 56,622
Development Effort Estimate, Person-Years (Person-Months) = 13.86 (166.28)
 (Basic COCOMO model, Person-Months = 2.4 * (KSLOC**1.05))
Schedule Estimate, Years (Months)                         = 1.45 (17.45)
 (Basic COCOMO model, Months = 2.5 * (person-months**0.38))
Estimated Average Number of Developers (Effort/Schedule)  = 9.53
Total Estimated Cost to Develop                           = $ 1,871,872

	This code was written in three years by myself (mostly), while I was
spending half my work time doing other things.  Now, I freely admit that I'm
a genius, but... I don't think that there's any earthly way that I'm as
productive as nine average programmers (13.86 person-years/1.5 calendar
years = 9.12 times average productivity).
	I think the model in this software is flawed.
Peter Darley

-----Original Message-----
From: spug-list-bounces at mail.pm.org
[mailto:spug-list-bounces at mail.pm.org]On Behalf Of Michael R. Wolf
Sent: Sunday, August 08, 2004 12:07 PM
To: spug-list at mail.pm.org
Subject: Re: SPUG: CPAN code worth $500M

Michael R. Wolf wrote:

 > CPAN == 5,000 person-years of work!!!!
 > Back-of-the-email-envelope-calculation....
 >     $100K/yr/programmer * 5,000 programmer-yrs == $500,000,000

Not too far off....  The actual "study"
(http://www.etla.org/stdout/code/cpan_sloccount.html) quotes:

     5,012 programmer-years

Michael R. Wolf
     All mammals learn by playing!
         MichaelRWolf at att.net
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